Bottom Line Up Front: China now leads the world with 2.2 million active open source software developers, while India’s 2+ million contributors already overtook Europe and the US in total numbers. African countries show the fastest growth rates globally, but the China-India race creates both opportunities and challenges for the continent’s emerging tech talent.
The global open source landscape has fundamentally shifted eastward, and the implications for international development are profound. We’re witnessing a technological realignment that will reshape how we approach digital solutions in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) for decades to come.
China Takes the Crown, India Closes Fast
China has emerged as the world’s largest pool of open source developers with over 2.2 million active contributors, making it the deepest pool of active open source contributors, according to OSS Compass. This level of contribution from China to global open source projects grew more than 10 times between 2015 and 2024.
India isn’t far behind. With over 2 million contributors, India and China together serve as key engines of talent growth in the global open source ecosystem, underscoring the eastward shift in market development.
For comparison, there were 1.9 million active open source developers in the European Union and 1.7 million in the US. GitHub’s projections suggest India will overtake the United States as the largest developer community on GitHub by 2027.
The West is being left behind.
Africa: Small Numbers, Explosive Growth
While Africa’s absolute numbers remain smaller, the growth rates are staggering. Nigeria leads globally with 45% year-over-year growth, followed by Ghana and Kenya at 41% each.
African startups and enterprises are increasingly leveraging open source technologies to build scalable solutions, using platforms like Linux, OpenStack, and various programming languages like Python and JavaScript. The continent is building what I call a “leapfrog infrastructure”—jumping directly to open source solutions without the legacy constraints that slow adoption elsewhere.
The ecosystem is maturing rapidly. Organizations like Open Source Community Africa are building communities through chapters, festivals, and open source projects, aiming to increase credible open source contributions from the region.
Africa is increasingly contributing to global projects.
The Quality Question We Can’t Ignore
However, let’s acknowledge the elephant in the room.
Although India stands as one of the top contributors, the quality of open source software built is not comparable as that of OSS built by US, Japan, Hong Kong. India has a long way to go to build ground breaking quality open source software that changes the landscape.
This criticism likely applies to rapid expansion in any region, including Africa. The challenge is building large developer communities and ensuring these communities create transformative solutions that address real-world problems effectively.
Government Support: The Great Enabler
What sets successful open source ecosystems apart is government backing. China’s progress would not be possible without strong and vigorous support from local governments, with cities like Beijing and Wuhan using supportive policy and infrastructure buildout to facilitate local open source initiatives.
India shows similar patterns. The Indian government has been proactive in endorsing OSS through initiatives like the National Policy on Software Products, the Digital India Initiative, and the Open Source Innovation Fund.
African governments are beginning to follow suit. Countries like South Africa and Kenya are leading examples where open data portals are being established, with growing advocacy for open source policies at national and regional levels.
The Impact on African Development
The China-India open source race creates three critical implications for African developers and the broader development community:
1. The talent competition intensifies.
As China and India absorb more global attention and investment, African developers face both opportunity and challenge. The positive: increased global focus on non-Western tech talent creates new pathways for African developers to engage internationally. The risk: brain drain as top African talent gets recruited to established hubs.
2. Technological sovereignty becomes crucial.
The open source movement in Africa is becoming “a transformative force that is reshaping how technology is developed, shared, and implemented across the continent”. African countries must decide whether to become consumers of China-India innovations or build indigenous capacity.
3. The funding landscape shifts.
While awareness of open source is rising in Africa, “there is still room to improve OSS adoption in non-tech sectors” and “consistent funding remains a challenge for many community-driven projects”. The China-India competition may redirect global investment away from smaller but promising African initiatives.
Practical Implications for Development Organizations
For those of us working in ICT4D, this shift demands strategic recalibration:
1. Rethink partnership models.
Instead of only looking to Silicon Valley, consider how Chinese and Indian open source projects might better address LMIC challenges. Chinese open source AI models like Kimi K2, MiniMax M1, and Qwen 3 now rank as the world’s top open sourced AI models—potentially more accessible and affordable than Western alternatives.
2. Invest in African capacity building.
Organizations across Africa are running training programs to build capacity in open source technologies, including initiatives like the Living Open Source Foundation in Zambia. Supporting these efforts becomes more critical as global competition intensifies.
3. Focus on localization and customization.
African developers are creating region-specific tools and contributing to global projects like Ushahidi and OpenStreetMap. This local innovation, combined with global open source resources, creates unique opportunities for development impact.
An African Future
The reality is clear: the global open source ecosystem has fundamentally shifted toward Asia, with Africa showing the fastest growth rates but from a smaller base. For the development community, this is about technology, power, opportunity, and digital sovereignty.
I believe Africa’s path forward lies not in directly competing with China and India’s scale, but in leveraging open source as a tool for addressing uniquely African challenges. From civic tech initiatives promoting transparency to open source solutions in healthcare and agriculture, the continent’s developers are already demonstrating how open source can drive social impact.
The China-India race may dominate headlines, but Africa’s open source story is just beginning. The question isn’t whether African countries can match Chinese or Indian developer numbers. No one can. It’s whether they can build sustainable, impactful open source ecosystems that serve their populations’ needs while contributing meaningfully to global innovation.
The next chapter of this story will be written by how well we support and scale Africa’s remarkable growth in open source development. The opportunity is enormous.
