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With all the hype around the use of text messaging on mobile phones, like Google Trader or FrontlineSMS, it seems that the future of communication in Africa will be SMS.

Yet, Erik Hersman recently asked a great question: Should we be Building SMS or Internet Services for Africa?

David looking for an IP-based future

What a lot of people don’t realize is that for the first time, last year, mobile phones shipped to Africa with data service capabilities outnumbered the simple SMS-only phones that are so prevalent on the continent (Gartner 2009). Of course, this doesn’t mean that there will be a majority of IP accessible phone users immediately, but it is on its way.

Equally important to understand, and a point that increases the momentum of the mobile services over IP argument, is the fact that where there is mobile penetration, there is also available data services. This stands true in Uganda, where MTN says there is 92% GPRS coverage on their network. It’s even true in countries still trying to catch up, like Liberia, where though there are only islands of coverage, that coverage generally comes with data.

Expanding on Erik's observations, I see several trends that will have the next generation of African ICT solution developers crunching IP code, not developing SMS extensions:

High SMS costs

Currently, text messaging is one of the the most profitable activities for mobile network operators. An SMS costs them next to nothing to transport and deliver, yet those 140 characters are grossly expensive to the end user. Any type of automated SMS traffic (Twitter for example) would quickly bankrupt a company who attempted a large scale activity. This is stifling SMS creativity.

Ability to innovate

Mobile network operators continue to run very closed systems, only allowing very few applications to run directly on their networks. They do allow IP-based services however, with data plans. And with an Internet presence, entrepreneurs can also get international attention and investment, and attract computer users too.

Demand for video

Already, market IT entrepreneurs are selling video compression services so movies can be played on phones. As soon as there is a critical mass of data service phones and plans, expect to have movie services start offering daily downloads. Churches will lead (a sermon a day), and commerce will follow closely behind. Services like this are impossible with SMS, but easy with IP.

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